FA industry in 2030: Interview with Masahiko Mori, President, DMG MORI（2/2）

The average unit price of machine tools has gone up

One trillion yen in sales is in sight

“While the average unit price of machines was 20 million yen 20 years ago, it is approaching close to 50 million yen today,” says Dr. Masahiko Mori, president of DMG MORI. This is because of increased delivery of systems that combine robots with peripherals, in addition to the high functionality of the machines themselves. As such trends accelerate, “One trillion yen in sales will come in sight in 2030,” he says.

– What are you currently working on for the next decade?

We still receive these kinds of inquiries: “The automation system we bought 15 years ago is broken. Do you have any replacement parts?” Rather than thinking about what business will be like in 10 years, we need to think about whether we will be able to provide aftercare in 10 years for the machines we deliver today.

– Will machine tools themselves change?

They will change significantly. They will get more precise, and the spindle will have a longer service life. To enable precise measurement, they have to become more precise machines. In order to manage thermal displacement and chattering during machining, the accuracy of machines needs to be improved both statically and dynamically, so manufacturers who cut corners in doing so may find it difficult to survive. Methods of manufacturing machines without proper heat treatment of parts but with correction on the control side will be no longer accepted.

– Will industry consolidation occur?

There is no doubt that it will occur. First of all, it will become difficult to maintain agent systems in Europe and the Americas. Many agents seem to have no successors or are having difficulty in the generational transition, and even now, I am impressed that they are handling it well. For the next decade, how to sell will become more important than the technologies or manufacturing methods. In other words, it will be a time when the methods of providing technology are critical. There is a high possibility that drastic movements, like the sharp decrease in local bookstores due to the spread of Internet sales, will also occur in the machine tool industry.

– What about the global machine tool market size?

The orders received by Japanese manufacturers will reach two trillion yen in scale in two to three years. It will reach three trillion yen in 2030, including overseas production by Japanese manufacturers. It is hard to imagine that the global manufacturing industry is shrinking; the world’s population is increasing. Quality products will be needed in China and India in the future, whereas technologies and products that assist an aging society will be needed in Japan and other developed nations.

Insights     Shu Yasumi, editor-in-chief

Dr. Mori mentioned “For the next decade, how to sell will become more important than the technologies or manufacturing methods. In other words, it will be a time when the methods of providing technology are critical”. In short, the most important matter is the relationships between users and machine tool builders. The users want to produce the high-quality workpieces with low costs. The machine tool builders want to make profits with satisfying the users.  Is it a contradiction?  No, these two wants are corresponding under the condition “developing process together”.

▶FA industry in 2030: Interview with Masahiko Mori, President, DMG MORI（1/2）