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Forecasting Japan’s FA industry in 2022 (1/3)

January 11, 2022

On January 11, 2022, News Digest Publishing, the company that publishes SEISANZAI Japan, announced its forecast for machine tool orders in Japan in 2022. News Digest Publishing held an event at the Nagoya Congress Center in Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture, for executives from the factory automation industry and others, and announced the FA industry forecast such as machine tool orders.

Shu Yasumi, editor-in-chief of News Digest Publishing, forecasted that the amount of machine tool orders in 2022 will be 1.5 trillion yen. The breakdown is 550 billion yen for domestic demand and 950 billion yen for foreign demand.

Japan’s machine tool orders for 2021 are estimated to increase 71.9% from the previous year to 1.55 trillion yen. The amount of orders received has made a V-shaped recovery from the sharp drop in 2020 due to COVID-19 disaster. Other industries, such as the automotive and semiconductor industries, have also experienced rapid recoveries, so the shortage of parts become more serious in the machine tool industry as well. As a result, there is a growing gap between the figures of orders and production, which is having a major impact on the order environment for machine tool manufacturers and trading companies.

Longer delivery times for machine tools will occur in 2022, and there will be adjustments for delivery delays. As a result, although market conditions are not bad, total orders are forecasted to decline slightly year on year. Domestic demand will remain firm this year, as the recovery from the COVID-19 disaster was delayed compared to overseas markets. In terms of foreign demand, Europe and the United States will be strong, while China will show signs of a lull.

The automotive industry, which is a major customer of the machine tool industry, has been greatly affected by the social issue of carbon neutrality, and automakers are searching for a direction for development and production. While investment in the development of electrification is brisk, investment in engine vehicles is stagnant.

The semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry is expected to continue to thrive, with SEMI, the international industry group, forecasting that the global market size will reach 13 trillion yen this year. However, the machine tool industry is not yet expected to end its competition with the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry and other major industries for the securing of mechanical and electronic components. In the machine tool industry, production is expected to remain tight, despite favorable orders conditions.

In its next article, SEISANZAI Japan will present its machine tool production forecast for 2022.

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